Zero-yield cliff
The point where bonds absorb the whole pool and STX-only yield goes to zero.
Price-free: headroom
The pool can fall by 94.0% mirrored (distribution 286) before bonds absorb all of it. Below that, STX-only stakers and the reserve get nothing.
As a price
Converting headroom to an STX/BTC price needs an assumption: that miner BTC bids scale linearly with the STX price.
| Figure | Value | Formula |
|---|---|---|
| Cliff price today | 21.3 sats/STX mirrored (block 967,690) | current price × obligation ÷ latest pool |
| With the SIP's 3,000 BTC launch book | ≈ 278.2 sats/STX hypothetical (block 967,690) | current price × 180,000,000 sats ÷ latest pool |
| friedger's figure, SIP inputs | 171.2 sats/STX hypothetical (SIP launch inputs) | 3,000 BTC × 3% ÷ (1,000 STX/block × 52,560 blocks/year) |
The current price is 355.96 sats/STX mirrored (block 967,690). 180,000,000 sats is what a 3,000 BTC book at 3% owes per interval (3,000 × 10⁸ × 0.03 ÷ 50).
Treat price cliffs as indicative
Miner bids only roughly track the STX price. Across distributions 282–286 the pool per sat/STX of price ranged from 0.58M to 0.89M sats.
friedger's derivation is from post #14 of the SIP discussion. The same inputs reproduce his 1.65× coverage at 282 sats/STX.