Bitcoin Staking risk · cycle 143

Latest distribution 286 (cycle 143, calculation height 967,399). Distributions run once per 1,050 Bitcoin blocks.

onchain computed by pox5-readermirrored posted by the publisher, incl. priceshypothetical stress and what-ifs

Headroom before bond yield is impairedmirrored

94.0%How far the reward pool can fall before bonds are short-paid (1 − 1/coverage).1 - obligation / gross_pool

Coveragemirrored

16.68×reward pool ÷ what bonds are owedgross_pool / obligation

Pending pool (not yet split)onchain

—Needs pox5-reader on mainnet (deploy pending).pox5-reader::get-pending-pool

Coverage history

mirrored

Coverage (×)n/a: no bonds2.0× coverage target (Bitcoin Staking SIP discussion)1.0× bond yield impaired

gross-accrued-rewards ÷ Σ target-yield per calculate-rewards event

mirrored

Pool (gross accrued, sats)Owed to bonds (sats)

calculate-rewards + bond-distribution events, cross-checked against pox-5 state

mirrored

Distribution 286 paid bond #1 (Genesis Bond) its full target. Live order needs pox5-reader on mainnet.

pox5-reader::get-bond-payout-order(u143)

mirrored

1.527 BTCNot drawing

Hypothetical cover: 5.52 cycles — reserve cannot currently pay out (requires SIP).

mainnet pox-5 calculate-rewards event, tx 0x4a0218d7b13de29ae47015e72345876d362c47159216675d40d03cd09ad1cc5d: reserve-balance

mirrored

6.67%annualised in BTC terms, distribution 286, at the STX/BTC price of that distribution

STX-only APY, BTC terms (%)

stx_only_yield * 50 / price (coingecko:market_chart/range @ 1789642800)

hypothetical

Cut miner BTC commits or the STX price, or swap in a larger bond book, and see which bonds pox-5 would pay in full, in part or not at all.